The International Atomic Energy agency is expected to report next week that Iran has installed hundreds of new centrifuges (LAT) at its underground Fordow facility and has increased uranium enrichment capability at its Natanz facility. Such moves could shorten the time Tehran needs for nuclear weaponization and could stoke Israel's fears that Iran is reaching an "immunity zone," a point at which an Israeli military attack couldn't seriously cripple Iran's nuclear program. Iran claims it is pursuing nuclear power for peaceful ends. IAEA officials Friday began new talks with Iran aimed at resolving questions about the possible military aspects of its nuclear program.
Analysis
"The White House has loudly promoted its success in passing several rounds of UN Security Council resolutions sanctioning Iran, and believes diplomatic avenues have not yet been exhausted. Barak, Netanyahu and fellow advocates of a strike -- reportedly as many as 11 of the 14 members of the Security Cabinet -- are convinced sanctions have been ineffective, negotiations are at a dead end and military action inevitable," writes Oren Kessler on Foreign Policy's web site.
"Many Western observers of Iran don't understand that its foreign policy has been fashioned largely to sustain an ideological identity. Thus, we can't understand Iran's foreign relations and its evident hostility by just assessing its international environment or the changing Mideast power balance," writes CFR's Ray Takeyh in the National Interest.
"Sanctions are raising the cost of the nuclear program for the Iranian regime and damaging its prestige at home and its influence abroad. Iranian leaders might not be willing to scrap their nuclear program, but they have not yet decided to build actual nuclear weapons. The mounting sanctions are likely making them even warier," note James Dobbins and Alireza Nader on ForeignAffairs.com.
Analysis
"The White House has loudly promoted its success in passing several rounds of UN Security Council resolutions sanctioning Iran, and believes diplomatic avenues have not yet been exhausted. Barak, Netanyahu and fellow advocates of a strike -- reportedly as many as 11 of the 14 members of the Security Cabinet -- are convinced sanctions have been ineffective, negotiations are at a dead end and military action inevitable," writes Oren Kessler on Foreign Policy's web site.
"Many Western observers of Iran don't understand that its foreign policy has been fashioned largely to sustain an ideological identity. Thus, we can't understand Iran's foreign relations and its evident hostility by just assessing its international environment or the changing Mideast power balance," writes CFR's Ray Takeyh in the National Interest.
"Sanctions are raising the cost of the nuclear program for the Iranian regime and damaging its prestige at home and its influence abroad. Iranian leaders might not be willing to scrap their nuclear program, but they have not yet decided to build actual nuclear weapons. The mounting sanctions are likely making them even warier," note James Dobbins and Alireza Nader on ForeignAffairs.com.
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